The population growth rate in China in 2014 is 0.4 percent. It is a 0.6 percentage point less than in 1995 and two times less than in the USA. To my mind, such slump is caused by the Chinese demographic policy called “One family – one child”. The size of the family in China is legislatively limited in order to reduce the overload on land, water and energy resources of the country. Such policy can lead to zero birth growth rate in China by 2025.
In China in 2014 the total fertility rate is 1.6 births per woman, while in the United States this indicator is 2. It has slightly changed compared to 1995 (1.8 births per woman). Again, the factor affecting this figure is the Chinese demographic policy. It is important to notice, that the social status of women in China initially wasn’t high. Nevertheless, nowadays Chinese women have the same rights as men.
The life expectancy at birth in China is 75 years, that is little lower, than in the USA (80 years). However, it is higher than in 1995 (69 years), and will grow to 77 years by 2025. The reason is that the level of public health care in China is growing. The main achievement is the new cooperative system of health care, which allows to compensate the costs of medical treatment for poor strata of society. Moreover, the government has built many up-to-date hospital complexes.
In 2014 the rate of infant mortality in China was 15 infants per 1,000 births. It is much higher, than in the USA (6 infants). Nevertheless, it is more than twice lower, than in 1995 (36 infants), and is expected to decrease to 11 infants per 1,000 births by 2025. This figure is influenced by the quality of medical care for infants in the first days after birth, which rises steadily in China. As to the birth rate, on the macro level the influence of the infant mortality on it is almost unnoticeable. However, on the micro level the behavior of parents may change. They either will strive for the second child or will be too depressed to give birth again.
The net number of migrants in China in 2014 is (- 434,000) persons. Despite the positive economic changes in China the standards of living are still quite low in comparison with developed countries. That’s why people leave the country seeking for better life. However, the number of emigrants is expected to decrease to 390,000 by 2025 due to tough government policy concerning the migration processes. In order to avoid complaints from partner countries about Chinese “migration threat”, government restricts emigration and fights against illegal exit from the country.
The population pyramid of China in 2014 is closer to the bell shape. This is the low stationary type, characterized by an almost equal share of young and elderly age groups and quite a low dependency ratio. The productive part of the population is still high, and the effect on the economy of the country is positive. Thus, such shape indicates a high level of country development.
Now China is in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model, characterized by the decline in birth and death rates, a strong economy, quality health care system. However, according to the graphs, the situation in China will worsen. In 2050 the pyramid will be contractible, or urn-shaped; the part of the elderly population will be overwhelming. Such change may be caused by the low birth rate and further low part of young people, high level of life expectancy at birth and consequent aging of the population.